Week 10 Recap
| Date | Away Team | Score | Home Team | Score | Result |
| 6/2 | Mariners | 10 | Yankees | 2 | W |
| 6/3 | Mariners | 7 | Braves | 5 | W |
| 6/4 | Mariners | 2 | Braves | 0 | W |
| 6/5 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 6/6 | Mariners | 0 | Rays | 4 | L |
| 6/7 | Mariners | 7 | Rays | 4 | W |
| 6/8 | Mariners | 5 | Rays | 0 | W |
If the season ended today, the Seattle Mariners would be participating in a one game Wild Card playoff against the California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Los Angeles. We’re into mid-June and the Mariners are playing playoff caliber baseball. The last time we we’re this many games over .500 at this point in the season was 2007. That team featured Jose Vidro, Jose Guillen, Yunieski Betancourt, Miguel Batista, and Jeff Weaver. It was also a year before Bill Bavasi was fired and the “success” of the team in 2007 led to a number of failed decisions in 2008 (one name, Bedard). Who knows if 2014 will be Jack Zdurencik’s version of 2007. Maybe this will be the start of a long and healthy run of success for the Mariners. Maybe it’s all a mirage and we’re going to come crashing down in July and August. All I know is that the Mariners are winning and its been really fun to watch.
- According to FanGraphs, the Mariners playoff odds sit just over 33%. 1 in 3? Sounds good to me!
- The only two current Mariners who were on that 2007 team: Felix Hernandez and Willie Bloomquist. We’ve come so far.
- The Mariners rode a 5 game winning streak until losing on Friday. Those five wins were against the Tigers, Yankees, and Braves, all competitive teams with playoff aspirations. After the single loss on Friday, we beat the Rays twice in a row over the weekend.
Player Performances One of the features I’m including is a look at the recent player performances from the past two weeks. That small of a sample size will give us some pretty extreme data points. If you want to see the methodology behind these statistics, check out this page. The two tables below are the batting and pitching data from the last two weeks (5/26-6/8).
Batters
| Name | G | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | SB | BB | AVG | OBP | SLG | BB% | K% | BABIP | WAR | ||
| Michael Saunders | 9 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.345 | 0.394 | 0.690 | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.421 | 0.6 | ||
| Cole Gillespie | 8 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.526 | 0.722 | 5.3% | 26.3% | 0.667 | 0.5 | ||
| Brad Miller | 10 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.267 | 0.371 | 0.433 | 13.9% | 30.6% | 0.389 | 0.4 | ||
| Kyle Seager | 13 | 53 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.264 | 0.304 | 0.566 | 5.4% | 17.9% | 0.275 | 0.4 | ||
| Robinson Cano | 9 | 38 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.368 | 0.429 | 0.395 | 7.1% | 9.5% | 0.412 | 0.3 | ||
| Willie Bloomquist | 6 | 19 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.421 | 0.476 | 0.526 | 9.5% | 19.0% | 0.533 | 0.3 | ||
| John Buck | 4 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.308 | 0.357 | 0.538 | 7.1% | 21.4% | 0.333 | 0.2 | ||
| Stefen Romero | 7 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.286 | 0.318 | 0.524 | 0.0% | 31.8% | 0.385 | 0.1 | ||
| Endy Chavez | 8 | 30 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.267 | 0.258 | 0.367 | 0.0% | 3.0% | 0.267 | 0.0 | ||
| Mike Zunino | 11 | 39 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.154 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 4.5% | 29.5% | 0.200 | 0.0 | ||
| James Jones | 13 | 47 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.255 | 0.255 | 0.319 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.343 | -0.1 | ||
| Dustin Ackley | 11 | 39 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.179 | 0.220 | 0.231 | 4.9% | 19.5% | 0.226 | -0.2 | ||
| Nick Franklin | 6 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.095 | 0.0% | 47.6% | 0.182 | -0.2 | ||
| Justin Smoak | 13 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.108 | 0.233 | 0.189 | 14.0% | 34.9% | 0.143 | -0.3 |
- I feel like I’ve written about the same few players over and over again in these recaps, Brad Miller, Mike Zunino, Robinson Cano, etc. These are players who’s success is directly related to the success of the entire team. They also happen to be some of my favorite players. So today, instead of talking about one of these three, I’m going to check in on someone I haven’t talked about since last year, Justin Smoak. He’s just as important to the success of this team as those three I listed above but his performance this season has gone rather unnoticed behind the failings (flailings) of Miller and Franklin. Smoak has not had a good season. He may have started out strong in April but he fell back to his norms in May. This month, the wheels have fallen off. He has just one hit in June and has been recently dealing with a hamstring injury that has forced him to miss the last few games. Overall, this season’s batting line would be a new low for him, .208/.282/.361. I know he’s probably slipped your mind but Jesus Montero is currently hitting .271/.339/.457 in Triple-A Tacoma. Jus’ sayin’.
- Robinson Cano still only has two home runs. He’s in the top 5 in the league in batting average. I don’t know what to feel regarding these two facts.
Pitchers
| Name | IP | G | TBF | SO | K/9 | BB | BB/9 | HR | HR/9 | BABIP | ERA | FIP | gmLI | WAR | ||
| Felix Hernandez | 22 2/3 | 3 | 83 | 32 | 12.71 | 3 | 1.19 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.333 | 1.19 | 0.65 | 1.4 | |||
| Roenis Elias | 23 | 3 | 89 | 18 | 7.04 | 4 | 1.57 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.222 | 3.52 | 3.43 | 0.5 | |||
| Chris Young | 17 1/3 | 3 | 73 | 14 | 7.27 | 10 | 5.19 | 2 | 1.04 | 0.213 | 3.12 | 4.69 | 0.2 | |||
| Hisashi Iwakuma | 13 | 2 | 52 | 12 | 8.31 | 2 | 1.38 | 2 | 1.38 | 0.333 | 3.46 | 3.69 | 0.2 | |||
| Brandon Maurer | 4 | 1 | 22 | 2 | 4.50 | 4 | 9.00 | 1 | 2.25 | 0.333 | 11.25 | 8.33 | -0.1 | |||
| Erasmo Ramirez | 3 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 12.00 | 1 | 3.00 | 2 | 6.00 | 0.545 | 15.00 | 10.08 | -0.2 | |||
| Dominic Leone | 5 2/3 | 5 | 24 | 7 | 11.12 | 2 | 3.18 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.333 | 1.59 | 1.67 | 1.1 | 0.2 | ||
| Fernando Rodney | 5 | 6 | 18 | 6 | 10.13 | 1 | 1.69 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.182 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 1.4 | 0.2 | ||
| Danny Farquhar | 3 2/3 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 4.91 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.357 | 2.45 | 1.99 | 0.6 | 0.1 | ||
| Yoervis Medina | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 | 9.00 | 1 | 2.25 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.125 | 0.00 | 1.83 | 1.4 | 0.1 | ||
| Charlie Furbush | 3 2/3 | 5 | 13 | 4 | 9.82 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 2.45 | 0.125 | 2.45 | 4.44 | 0.8 | 0.0 | ||
| Joe Beimel | 3 2/3 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2.45 | 3 | 7.36 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.182 | 0.00 | 4.99 | 0.2 | 0.0 | ||
| Tom Wilhelmsen | 7 | 4 | 30 | 8 | 10.29 | 3 | 3.86 | 1 | 1.29 | 0.294 | 2.57 | 4.36 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
- King Felix is pitching at an entirely new level right now. Observe:
- Over the last 30 days, Felix has amassed 2.4 WAR, 1 full WAR more than the next highest pitcher.
- That stat remains the same over the entire season, 1 full WAR more than the next highest pitcher.
- 9.73 K/9, 1.56 BB/9, 1.93 FIP — all career best marks.
- FanGraphs uses a stat called FIP- that scales a pitcher’s FIP in relation to league average and then adjusts for park and league effects. It’s a statistic that can be used to compare pitching seasons years apart. Felix’s FIP- mark of 51 this year is the best mark since 2004 and in the top-15 of all time (going back to 1871, the beginning of FanGraph’s database).
Right now, Felix is the front-runner for the Cy Young award and it’s not even close.
AL West Standings
| Team | Win-Loss | Win% | Games Behind |
| Athletics | 39-24 | 0.619 | – |
| Angels | 34-28 | 0.548 | 4.5 |
| Mariners | 33-29 | 0.532 | 5.5 |
| Rangers | 31-32 | 0.492 | 8 |
| Astros | 28-36 | 0.438 | 11.5 |
AL Wild Card Standings
| Team | Win-Loss | Win% | Games Behind |
| Angels | 34-28 | 0.548 | +1 |
| Mariners | 33-29 | 0.532 | – |
| Orioles | 31-30 | 0.508 | 1.5 |
| Indians | 32-31 | 0.508 | 1.5 |
| Yankees | 31-31 | 0.5 | 2 |
The Week Ahead
| Date | Away Team | Probable Pitcher | Home Team | Probable Pitcher |
| 6/9 | Mariners | R Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | L David Price |
| 6/10 | Yankees | R Masahiro Tanaka | Mariners | R Hisashi Iwakuma |
| 6/11 | Yankees | R Chase Whitley | Mariners | R Chris Young |
| 6/12 | Yankees | R David Phelps | Mariners | L Roenis Elias |
| 6/13 | Rangers | TBD | Mariners | R Felix Hernandez |
| 6/14 | Rangers | TBD | Mariners | R Erasmo Ramirez |
| 6/15 | Rangers | TBD | Mariners | R Hisashi Iwakuma |
The Mariners finish their four game series against the Rays on Monday and fly home to start an eight game homestand against the Yankees, the Rangers, and the Padres. The game on Tuesday against the Yankees is being billed as Derek Jeter’s final visit to Seattle. The more intriguing storyline is the pitching matchup between Masahiro Tanaka and his former mentor, Hisashi Iwakuma. That’s going to be a fun game to watch.
Knowledge: Boats 